“Pelosi screwed up royally. She is the Democratic Tom DeLay. Newt Gingrich was an ideologue, but Tom DeLay was simply a partisan, most keenly interested in maximizing his party’s political power. Pelosi cut a deal in which, as far as I can tell, every single Republican in a safe seat had to vote yes so that the Democrats could maximize their no votes. Given that the Republican caucus is pretty much in open revolt, this was beyond moronic. She then spent a week openly and repeatedly blaming the Republicans and the Bush administration for the current crisis. The way she set things up, it was “Heads I win, tails you lose”: vote for the deal and I’ll paint you as heartless reactionaries bailing out your fat cat friends. If you’re going to do that, you’d better make sure you have some goddamn margin for error in your own party. She didn’t. Then she got up and delivered yet another speech blaming the Republicans for the bailout deal she was about to pass.” –Megan McArdle, blogging at the Atlantic
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For your reading pleasure, here are the scenarios that would have made Pelosi look bad in the eyes of the public, ranked in order of magnitude:
1. Pelosi supports the unpopular bill, Republican leaders oppose it. The bill passes, making Pelosi look like the grinch who pushed through the tax of the century to save the fatcats.
2. Pelosi supports the unpopular bill, Republicans oppose it. The bill fails, making Pelosi look both ineffectual and on the wrong side.
3. Both Pelosi and Republicans support the bill and it passes. Pelosi (and the Republicans) look like they’re in the pocket of Wall St.
4. Both Pelosi and Republicans support the bill and it fails. Pelosi looks weak and she’s on the wrong side. But the same is true of the Republican leaders.
5. Both Pelosi and Republicans oppose the bill and it fails. Pelosi looks weak, but at least she’s on the right side. Of course, the Republicans are also.
6. Pelosi opposes the bill, so does Boehner, and it passes. Not bloody likely.
7. Pelosi opposes the bill, Republican leaders favor it, and it passes Pelosi looks like a martyr.
8. Pelosi opposes the bill, Republican leaders favor it, and it fails. Pelosi looks like a hero.
As you can see, there are three binary factors, leaving 2^3 = 8 possible scenarios. The actual scenario that played out was #4, which was about what one could expect.
Basically, once she chose to support the bill, there was no way she could come out looking good, but having taken that side, the best scenario possible was actually the one that unfolded. I don’t think she’s too worried about it.
By the way, to see how McCain, Bush, Boehner, or Obama fared in the eyes of the public just substitute the names and play again (since all of them were in favor of the bill).
Good point!